Though the October 11, 2015 presidential elections in
Guinea Conakry have come and gone, not many would
forget in a long time the key role played by Asiwaju Bola
Ahmed Tinubu.
And just like he did in the Nigerian situation serving as the
catalyst, the fulcrum alongside others and perhaps the
“babalawo” that brought the opposition to power and
chased away the PDP after 16 years in power, Asiwaju
Tinubu has helped retain a trusted friend and pan-
Africanist in power.
Professor Alpha Conde, the first democratically elected
president of Guinea, is back for a record second term of
five years after a commanding first round victory of 58
percent of total votes cast.
The victory that
came when the
final results were
announced was
reward for
handwork and a
campaign that
was on message.
The political
campaign of the
incumbent
president got a
bite when Tinubu
moved in to help
his friend, a
brother and a true African leader. The journey for Alpha
Conde’s re-election began sometime in May 2015 when he
came to Nigeria for the inauguration of President
Muhammadu Buhari. President Conde not only met with
Nigeria’s president, Muhammadu Buhari, but also with
other African leaders. He described his meeting with
Buhari as very useful and insightful. President Conde in
several conversations maintained that Africa has found in
Buhari the leader it needs to lead it and move it forward.
He said Buhari is best suited to lead Africa where
Goodluck Jonathan failed.
On that same May trip, he also met with Tinubu to learn
more about Nigeria’s political and election experience. He
also discussed the political situation in Guinea and the
Presidential election ahead. I recall that the President also
met with the governor of Lagos State, Akinwumi Ambode.
After the initial May visit, Tinubu in June 2015 visited
Conakry to further assess the country’s political terrain
and the direction of the presidential campaigns. Soon
after, Tinubu moved into Conakry personally with his
team. The Tinubu election strategy and planning team
comprising of six people quickly settled down to work with
barely 60 days to the election.
Embedded within the Alpha Conde campaign
organisation, the Tinubu team worked on political
messaging, speeches, social media interventions, election
monitoring and countering the opponents and a day-by-
day review of the campaign. Perhaps, the most defining
aspect of the presidential campaign was the ROBO call
element, which was used for the first time in any election
in Guinea.
The ROBO call involved the sending out of an automated
message recorded by President Conde to about 6 million
voters asking for their support and telling them he was
their best choice. At least one in every 4 Guinean received
such a direct phone call from the president. It soon
became the talk of town as the president’s message in
four languages went out to the electorate. It was out in
French, Fular, Malinke and Sousou. The social media also
went abuzz discussing the timely direct voice messages
from the president to the people.
But back to the dynamics of the politics in Guinea. The last
presidential election had some strong candidates in the
opposition who were backed by big money and were
armed to ensure they either win or create problems. The
toughest challenger to Alpha Conde was the Fula leader
and former Prime Minister, Ciello Djallo, who had a
strong 40 percent support from his economically powerful
Fula tribe.
Several weeks to the election, the calls for the
postponement were rife coming mainly from the
opposition. They hinged their calls for postponement on
the non-preparedness of the electoral body in the
issuance of voter cards and the fear that the election
would be marred by violence. However, they had a game
plan. Their game plan was to force a second round ballot
in which situation they would have a very good chance of
unseating the president. They failed in their attempt to
postpone the election. They however did not fail to
generate some violence. The final campaign by Djallo
turned out very violent. Five deaths were recorded.
Tension rose. It was a day before Alpha Conde’s final rally
for the RPG party.
The campaign organisation had to re-strategise quickly. If
the president went ahead, there would be violence and
that would play into the script of the opposition to have
the election postponed. The president took the hard
decision with his team to cancel his final rally. It turned
out to be a very smart political decision. It brought down
the tension and calmed nerves. The opposition bit their
fingers.
The president went on ROBO calls to millions of Guineans
asking them to remain calm. Not to burn Guinea but to
build Guinea. He asked them to come out and vote
peacefully on October 11.
The decision not to postpone election was a tough one.
Asiwaju Tinubu played a key role in advising the President
to stick to the date, October 11. He provided context for
the President by letting him into the experience Nigeria
had during the last presidential election. This insight along
with the understanding of the dynamics of the Guinean
political situation helped the President Conde not to
postpone the election.
The electoral body also stuck to its gun that it was ready to
conduct the election. Perhaps the most important voice
was that of the diplomatic community that rang out in
unison that Guinea was ready for the October 11
Presidential election and that the talk of violence was
perhaps exaggerated. Muhammad Ibn Chambas, the head
of the UN delegation played a bit of shuttle diplomacy
within Guinea nudging the diplomatic community to speak
with one voice. He worked through the ranks of the
presidential candidates urging them to shun violence by
speaking to their supporters to participate fully in the
process.
Fortunately, Election Day came on October 11, 2015 and
there was no single act of violence or voter intimidation.
Polls were extended from 6pm to 8pm to accommodate
all the voters. At the end, the people of Guinea
demonstrated their love for democracy and peaceful
elections. The United Nations in fact adjudged the
presidential election in Guinea as one of the most credible
and peaceful in Africa.
The people of Guinea were patient enough for the
electoral body, SENI, to compile all results from across the
country. It took about a week. But by the time 70 percent
of the results came in, the excitement began to build
because Alpha Conde was in the clear lead and a first
round victory was suddenly within reach. Sensing defeat,
the other candidates quickly held a press briefing to reject
the results and ask for cancellation. It was a last ditch
effort that failed. There was no way they could cancel the
wish and the votes of nearly six million of their
countryfolk.
Alpha Conde went ahead to win and earn another five
years in power. But after the celebration of victory, he
must settle down to govern and place Guinea on the path
of accelerated development. The Kaleta electricity project
that was the corner stone of his performance and
electoral success must be expanded quickly to generate
more power beyond its present 240-mega watts. The
roads need attention, more foreign direct investments are
needed, urban renewal, job creation, education must be
subsidised and programmes to reduce poverty must be
rolled out. Therein lies the only way he can reward the
electorate for trusting him to be their leader for another
five years.
The Nigerian experienced rubbed off. Thanks to Tinubu
and many others who worked silently behind the scene to
make sure democracy not only grows but also survives in
a country like Guinea, Nigeria’s neighbour. Tinubu seems
to be about the business of installing presidents across
Africa. But beyond that he is more about ensuring
democracy thrives and good governance is enthroned in
Africa. Nigeria under the current leadership now has the
moral and political leverage to support and lead other
African nations on this path.
Sunday Dare is Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Chief of Staff
and Media Adviser.
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